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The Marked Chart Wire · Economy and the Fed
Economy
Mortgage applications increased 3.4 percent last week, reversing a prior decline of 5.3 percent. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 7.37 percent from 7.41 percent.
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Fed
Goldman Sachs economists forecast a single 25 basis point rate increase, contrasting with the three hikes currently priced in by markets. This would result in roughly 50 basis points of cumulative tightening for the cycle.
BoC Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at 2.5 percent, matching forecasts. It now projects average inflation of 2.9 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027, up from earlier estimates.
Trade Data
The US advance goods trade balance showed a deficit of 134.9 billion dollars, exceeding the forecast of 130.2 billion. Wholesale inventories rose 0.6 percent month over month, while retail inventories excluding autos increased 0.4 percent.
AI Spending
Goldman Sachs sees 0.1 percentage point added to 2026 growth from direct AI outlays, while ING projects 0.8 points including indirect effects. Q3 GDP is expected near 3 percent, though imported equipment complicates calculations.
HotFed
U.S. stock index futures traded in mixed directions on Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Fed
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting today. Analysts project at least three rate hikes by September 2027.
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