The Marked Chart Wire · Series of events
Series of events · Fed
Fed hike expectations ease ahead of rate decision
Officials flagged inflation risks and economists forecast hikes before traders reduced bets and attention turned to the Fed decision.
Updated
The flow in 3 points
- Most Fed participants viewed another rate increase in 2026 as likely appropriate
- All 100 economists polled forecast a rate increase in December 2026
- Traders later reduced bets on a Fed increase before year-end
What happened, in order
Times are Eastern-
Where it began
Officials see hike likely
Most Fed participants viewed another rate increase in 2026 as likely appropriate, while AI infrastructure spending continued to surprise officials.
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Inflation expectations warning
Michelle Hammack warned that expectations of lasting inflation could make price pressures harder to manage, with borrowing costs still loose.
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Two hikes forecast
Barclays strategists forecast Fed rate increases in December and January.
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Economists expect October hold
Of 100 economists, 94 expected an October hold at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent. All 100 forecast a December 2026 increase.
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Turning point
Hike bets ease
Traders priced in a lower probability of a Fed rate increase before the end of the year.
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Central bank pauses expected
The Fed and European Central Bank were expected to hold rates steady at upcoming meetings, with rising energy prices keeping December increases possible.
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Fed hold anticipated
Market participants expected the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week.
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Rate decision approaches
The Fed was set to announce its rate stance this week, while over a third of large-cap firms prepared to report quarterly results.
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Latest
Futures rise before decision
US equity futures rose in pre-market trading as investors watched falling oil prices and prepared for the Fed rate decision.
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How they connect
Officials first highlighted inflation risks, followed by forecasts for further rate increases. Traders then reduced bets on an increase before year-end, while later reports focused on an expected hold and the upcoming decision.
What to watch
- Fed rate decision at the October 27 to 28 meeting
A series is a short summary of connected news, for learning. Not verified and not advice. Check the full stories before you act.